Effectiveness of COVID-19 Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir or Molnupiravir Among U.S. Veterans: Target Trial Emulation Studies With One-Month and Six-Month Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19. DESIGN: Three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA). PARTICIPANTS: Nonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022. INTERVENTION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days. RESULTS: Eighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. LIMITATION: The date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown. CONCLUSION: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

Clinical trial facilitators: A novel approach to support the execution of clinical research at the study site level.

In the summer of 2020, multiple efforts were undertaken to establish safe and effective vaccines to combat the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the United States (U.S.), Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was the program designated to coordinate such efforts. OWS was a partnership between the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the private sector, that aimed to help accelerate control of the COVID-19 pandemic by advancing development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) was identified as a potential collaborator in several large-scale OWS Phase III clinical trial efforts designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of various vaccines that were in development. Given the global importance of these trials, it was recognized that there would be a need for a coordinated, centralized effort within VA to ensure that its medical centers (sites) would be ready and able to efficiently initiate, recruit, and enroll into these trials. The manuscript outlines the partnership and start-up activities led by two key divisions of the VA's Office of Research and Development's clinical research enterprise. These efforts focused on site and enterprise-level requirements for multiple trials, with one trial serving as the most prominently featured of these studies within the VA. As a result, several best practices arose that included designating clinical trial facilitators to study sites to support study initiation activities and successful study enrollment at these locations in an efficient and timely fashion.

Receipt of anti-SARS-CoV-2 pharmacotherapies among non-hospitalized U.S. Veterans with COVID-19, January 2022 to January 2023 (preprint)

IMPORTANCESeveral pharmacotherapies have been authorized to treat non-hospitalized persons with symptomatic COVID-19. Longitudinal information on their use is needed. OBJECTIVETo analyze trends and factors related to prescription of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTSThis cohort study evaluated non-hospitalized veterans in VHA care who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from January 2022 through January 2023, using VHA and linked Community Care and Medicare databases. EXPOSURESDemographic characteristics, regional and local systems of care including Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISNs), underlying medical conditions, COVID-19 vaccination. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESMonthly receipt of any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, molnupiravir, sotrovimab, or bebtelovimab) was described. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with receipt of any versus no COVID-19 pharmacotherapy. RESULTSAmong 285,710 veterans (median [IQR] age, 63.1 [49.9-73.7] years; 247,358 (86.6%) male; 28,444 (10%) Hispanic; 198,863 (72.7%) White; 61,269 (22.4%) Black) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 2022 and January 2023, the proportion receiving any pharmacotherapy increased from 3.2% (3,285/102,343) in January 2022 to 23.9% (5,180/21,688) in August 2022, and declined slightly to 20.8% (2,194/10,551) by January 2023. Across VISNs, the range in proportion of test-positive patients who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir during January 2023 was 5.9 to 21.4% and 2.1 to 11.1%, respectively. Veterans receiving any treatment were more likely to be older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.18, 95% CI 1.14-1.22 for 65 to 74 versus 50 to 64 years; aOR 1.19, 95% CI 1.15-1.23 for 75 versus 50 to 64 years), have a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (aOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.44-1.59 for CCI [≥]6 versus 0), and be vaccinated against COVID-19 (aOR 1.25, 95% CI 1.19-1.30 for primary versus no vaccination; aOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.42-1.53 for booster versus no vaccination). Compared with White veterans, Black veterans (aOR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.09) were more likely to receive treatment, and compared with non-Hispanic veterans, Hispanic veterans (aOR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.11) were more likely to receive treatment. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEAmong veterans who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 2022 and January 2023, prescription of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies peaked in August 2022 and declined thereafter. There remain large regional differences in patterns of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir use.

Clinical trial facilitators: A novel approach to support the execution of clinical research at the study site level

In the summer of 2020, multiple efforts were undertaken to establish safe and effective vaccines to combat the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the United States (U.S.), Operation Warp Speed (OWS) was the program designated to coordinate such efforts. OWS was a partnership between the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the private sector, that aimed to help accelerate control of the COVID-19 pandemic by advancing development, manufacturing, and distribution of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) was identified as a potential collaborator in several large-scale OWS Phase III clinical trial efforts designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of various vaccines that were in development. Given the global importance of these trials, it was recognized that there would be a need for a coordinated, centralized effort within VA to ensure that its medical centers (sites) would be ready and able to efficiently initiate, recruit, and enroll into these trials. The manuscript outlines the partnership and start-up activities led by two key divisions of the VA's Office of Research and Development's clinical research enterprise. These efforts focused on site and enterprise-level requirements for multiple trials, with one trial serving as the most prominently featured of these studies within the VA. As a result, several best practices arose that included designating clinical trial facilitators to study sites to support study initiation activities and successful study enrollment at these locations in an efficient and timely fashion.

Impact of COVID-19 on the management and outcomes of ureteric stones in the UK: a multicentre retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if management of ureteric stones in the UK changed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and whether this affected patient outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective study of adults with computed tomography-confirmed ureteric stone disease at 39 UK hospitals during a pre-pandemic period (23/3/2019-22/6/2019) and a period during the pandemic (the 3-month period after the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 case at individual sites). The primary outcome was success of primary treatment modality, defined as no further treatment required for the index ureteric stone. Our study protocol was published prior to data collection. RESULTS: A total of 3735 patients were included (pre-pandemic 1956 patients; pandemic 1779 patients). Stone size was similar between groups (P > 0.05). During the pandemic, patients had lower hospital admission rates (pre-pandemic 54.0% vs pandemic 46.5%, P < 0.001), shorter mean length of stay (4.1 vs 3.3 days, P = 0.02), and higher rates of use of medical expulsive therapy (17.4% vs 25.4%, P < 0.001). In patients who received interventional management (pre-pandemic 787 vs pandemic 685), rates of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (22.7% vs 34.1%, P < 0.001) and nephrostomy were higher (7.1% vs 10.5%, P = 0.03); and rates of ureteroscopy (57.2% vs 47.5%, P < 0.001), stent insertion (68.4% vs 54.6%, P < 0.001), and general anaesthetic (92.2% vs 76.2%, P < 0.001) were lower. There was no difference in success of primary treatment modality between patient cohorts (pre-pandemic 73.8% vs pandemic 76.1%, P = 0.11), nor when patients were stratified by treatment modality or stone size. Rates of operative complications, 30-day mortality, and re-admission and renal function at 6 months did not differ between the data collection periods. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, there were lower admission rates and fewer invasive procedures performed. Despite this, there were no differences in treatment success or outcomes. Our findings indicate that clinicians can safely adopt management strategies developed during the pandemic to treat more patients conservatively and in the community.

Clinical Diagnosis and Management of Mucosal Leishmaniasis in the Context of a Global Pandemic: A Case Report.

Mucosal leishmaniasis (ML) is a rare metastatic complication of Leishmania infection. It has a high potential for destructive and disfiguring complications, namely destruction of nasal architecture and airway compromise. ML is difficult to treat for a variety of reasons, including variable antimicrobial resistance rates between species, as well as between endemic areas geographically. There are several treatment options available, which are discussed here. In the majority of cases, a nuanced approach to treatment is required based on speciation and geography. Importantly, the treatment of ML requires a multi-disciplinary approach. We present a patient with a history of cutaneous leishmaniasis who presented with signs and symptoms concerning ML, but due to the COVID-19 global pandemic diagnostic testing was not possible, was treated empirically under clinical suspicion of ML with good results.

Early Adoption of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Pharmacotherapies Among US Veterans With Mild to Moderate COVID-19, January and February 2022.

Importance: Older adults and individuals with medical comorbidities are at increased risk for severe COVID-19. Several pharmacotherapies demonstrated to reduce the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death have been authorized for use. Objective: To describe factors associated with receipt of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. Design, Settings, and Participants: This cohort study assessed outpatient veterans with risk factors for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January and February 2022. The setting was the VA health care system, the largest integrated health care system in the US. Exposures: Demographic characteristics, place of residence, underlying medical conditions, and COVID-19 vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: The odds of receipt of any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir boosted with ritonavir, molnupiravir, or remdesivir were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Among 111 717 veterans included in this study (median [IQR] age, 60 [46-72] years; 96 482 [86.4%] male, 23 362 [20.9%] Black, 10 740 [9.6%] Hispanic, 75 973 [68.0%] White) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January to February 2022, 4233 (3.8%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including 2870 of 92 396 (3.1%) in January and 1363 of 19 321 (7.1%) in February. Among a subset of 56 285 veterans with documented COVID-19-related symptoms in the 30 days preceding a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, 3079 (5.5%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy. Untreated veterans had a median (IQR) age of 60 (46-71) years and a median (IQR) of 3 (2-5) underlying medical conditions. Veterans receiving any treatment were more likely to be older (aged 65 to 74 years vs 50 to 64 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.52-1.80]; aged at least 75 years vs 50 to 64 years: aOR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.53-1.84]) and have a higher number of underlying conditions (at least 5 conditions vs 1 to 2 conditions: aOR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.98-2.39]). Compared with White veterans, Black veterans (aOR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.60-0.72]) were less likely to receive treatment; and compared with non-Hispanic veterans, Hispanic veterans (aOR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.77-0.99]) were less likely to receive treatment. There were 16 546 courses of sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir, and molnupiravir allocated across the VA during this period. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of veterans who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January and February when supply of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies was limited, prescription of these pharmacotherapies was underused, and many veterans with risk factors for severe COVID-19 did not receive treatment. Veterans from minority racial and ethnic groups were less likely to receive any pharmacotherapy.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir among U.S. Veterans: target trial emulation studies with one-month and six-month outcomes (preprint)

Background: Information about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes during the Omicron surge is limited. We sought to determine the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for the outpatient treatment of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted three retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched patient cohorts who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Participants were Veterans in VHA care at risk for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the outpatient setting during January and February 2022. Primary outcomes included all-cause 30-day hospitalization or death and 31-180-day incidence of acute or long-term care admission, death, or post-COVID-19 conditions. For 30-day outcomes, we calculated unadjusted risk rates, risk differences, and risk ratios. For 31-180-day outcomes, we used unadjusted time-to-event analyses. Results: Participants were 90% male with median age 67 years and 26% unvaccinated. Compared to matched untreated controls, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-treated participants (N=1,587) had a lower 30-day risk of hospitalization (27.10/1000 versus 41.06/1000, risk difference [RD] -13.97, 95% CI -23.85 to -4.09) and death (3.15/1000 versus 14.86/1000, RD -11.71, 95% CI -16.07 to -7.35). Among persons who were alive at day 31, further significant reductions in 31-180-day incidence of hospitalization (sub-hazard ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.37) or death (hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.35 to 1.08) were not observed. Molnupiravir-treated participants aged [≥]65 years (n=543) had a lower combined 30-day risk of hospitalization or death (55.25/1000 versus 82.35/1000, RD -27.10, 95% CI -50.63 to -3.58). A statistically significant difference in 30-day or 31-180-day risk of hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants. Incidence of most post-COVID conditions was similar across comparison groups. Conclusions: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was highly effective in preventing 30-day hospitalization and death. Short-term benefit from molnupiravir was observed in older groups. Significant reductions in adverse outcomes from 31-180 days were not observed with either antiviral.

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE NATIONAL EARLY WARNING SCORE 2 IS IMPROVED BY THE ADDITION OF INSPIRED OXYGEN FRACTION AS A WEIGHTED CATEGORICAL VARIABLE

TYPE: Late Breaking TOPIC: Critical Care PURPOSE: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is validated for the prediction of acute deterioration, however, the binary grading of inspired oxygen (FiO2) may be a limitation. We tested whether incorporation of FiO2 as a weighted categorical variable improves the predictive validity of NEWS2. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 3704 adult ward admissions between 01/01/17 and 30/03/21, with a viral respiratory infection (SARS-CoV-2/Influenza). 143,157 longitudinal physiological observations were extracted. FiO2 was transformed into a weighted categorical variable and assigned 0-3 points, substituting the original 0/2 points. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac arrest, unplanned critical care admission or death within 24 hours of the observation. Ethics approval was granted. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics: age (mean±SD) 60.4±19.4 years, male gender n(%) 1949(52.6%), Charlson co-morbidity count (mean±SD) 1.6±2.3. The primary outcome occurred in 493(13.3%) patients and was strongly associated with the weighted FiO2 score (χ2, p=<0.001). In patients receiving supplemental oxygen, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was greater for NEWS-FiO2 (0.810 (95%CI 0.807-0.814)) versus NEWS2 (0.771 (95%CI 0.767-0.774)). This improvement persisted in the whole cohort. At the 5-point threshold, the positive predictive value (PPV) increased by 22.0% (number needed to evaluate 6.7) for only a 3.9% decrease in sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of weighted FiO2 into NEWS2 improves the predictive validity for adverse events, particularly by improving the PPV. Confirmation with prospective analysis is required. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Weighted FiO2 ought to be considered in the next iteration of NEWS2. This can be operationalised automatically within electronic health records or manually with a reference table. DISCLOSURE: No significant relationships. KEYWORD: Early Warning Systems

Receipt of anti-SARS-CoV-2 pharmacotherapies among U.S. Veterans with mild to moderate COVID-19, January-February 2022 (preprint)

BackgroundOlder adults and persons with medical co-morbidities are at increased risk for severe COVID-19. Several pharmacotherapies demonstrated to reduce the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death have been authorized for use. We describe factors associated with receipt of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies in the Veterans Health Administration. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study among Veterans with risk factors for severe COVID-19 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January and February 2022. We compared receipt of any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir, molnupiravir, or remdesivir versus no antiviral or monoclonal antibody treatment according to demographic characteristics, place of residence, underlying medical conditions, and COVID-19 vaccination using multivariable logistic regression. ResultsDuring January and February 2022, 16,546 courses of sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir, and molnupiravir were allocated across the Veterans Health Administration. Among 111,717 Veterans testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, 4,233 (3.8%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy, including 2,870 of 92,396 (3.1%) in January and 1,363 of 19,321 (7.1%) in February. Among a subset of 56,206 Veterans with documented COVID-19-related symptoms in the 30 days preceding positive SARS-CoV-2 test, 3,079 of 53,206 (5.5%) received any COVID-19 pharmacotherapy. Untreated Veterans had a median age of 60 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46-71 years) and median 3 underlying medical conditions (IQR 2-5). Veterans receiving any treatment were more likely to be older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-1.80, 65-74 versus 50-64 years; aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.53-1.84 [≥]75 versus 50-64 years) and have a higher number of underlying conditions (aOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.48-1.79, 3-4 versus 1-2 conditions; aOR 2.17, 95% CI 1.98-2.39, [≥]5 versus 1-2 conditions). Persons of Black versus White race (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.72) and well as persons of Hispanic ethnicity (aOR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77-0.99) were less likely to receive treatment. Conclusions and RelevanceAlthough supply of outpatient COVID-19 pharmacotherapies during January and February 2022 was limited, prescription of these pharmacotherapies was underutilized, consistent with early national patterns in dispensing. Racial and ethnic minorities were less likely to receive any pharmacotherapy.

Drive By Flu-FIT: A novel way to mitigate the decrease in colorectal cancer screening during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, screening colonoscopy rates decreased by 90%. The decreased screening rates will increase the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in communities. The pandemic has created a need for novel models for safely engaging and screening community members for CRC. Methods: We implemented NCI's Screen to Save CRC screening campaign using a socially-distanced, Drive By Flu-FIT protocol and report the results of the FIT component of the program. In partnership with the leadership of Enon Tabernacle Church, the largest Baptist church in the Philadelphia region, we invited community members at average risk for CRC and between the ages of 45-75 to register for one of three Drive by Flu-FIT events held between Oct-Nov, 2020. Interested participants also completed eligibility, registration, and demographic questionnaires administered electronically via REDCap. Upon completion of these questionnaires, participants watched a 8-minute CRC screening educational video and pre- and post- CRC knowledge and intentions questionnaires. Participants who attended one of the three events received a Flu vaccine and/or FIT test and instructions to return the completed FIT to a medical collection box at Enon Tabernacle Church. This research was approved by the University of Pennsylvania's Institutional Review Board. Results: Of the 335 participants that registered for the event, 80 (23.9%) did not show, 63 (18.8%) were ineligible and 192 attended the event and received a FIT (57.3%). Reasons for ineligibility were: age outside of the recommended age for screening (n=40);having had a recent colonoscopy (n=13);symptoms/signs of CRC including change in your bowel habits, rectal bleeding, abdominal pain, iron deficiency anemia, unexplained weight loss (n=10);a possible family history or possible Lynch syndrome (n=1). Patients with symptoms/signs and family history of CRC were referred to colonoscopy. The 192 participants that comprised this analytic had a mean (s.d.) age of 58.9 (9.5) years, 60.4% were female, 93.8% self-identified as Black, and 1.6% as Hispanic. The pre-and post-knowledge scores showed an increase after the video intervention (p=0.0006) as did the intention to screen scores (p=0.007). To date, of the 192 participants who received a FIT, 38 (19.7%) did not return the FIT, 141 (73.4%) had a negative FIT result and 13 (6.7%) had a positive FIT result and were referred to colonoscopy. The results of colonoscopy are pending. Conclusions This research shows that a socially-distanced Drive By Flu-FIT program is feasible, acceptable and effective in engaging the community in CRC education and screening during the COVID-19 pandemic. Novel programs such as this can help mitigate the significant decline in screening for CRC that has occurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and, thus, can help reduce the burden of CRC in our diverse communities.

The CCEDRRN COVID-19 Mortality Score to predict death among nonpalliative patients with COVID-19 presenting to emergency departments: a derivation and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Predicting mortality from COVID-19 using information available when patients present to the emergency department can inform goals-of-care decisions and assist with ethical allocation of critical care resources. The study objective was to develop and validate a clinical score to predict emergency department and in-hospital mortality among consecutive nonpalliative patients with COVID-19; in this study, we define palliative patients as those who do not want resuscitative measures, such as intubation, intensive care unit care or cardiopulmonary resuscitation. METHODS: This derivation and validation study used observational cohort data recruited from 46 hospitals in 8 Canadian provinces participating in the Canadian COVID-19 Emergency Department Rapid Response Network (CCEDRRN). We included adult (age ≥ 18 yr) nonpalliative patients with confirmed COVID-19 who presented to the emergency department of a participating site between Mar. 1, 2020, and Jan. 31, 2021. We randomly assigned hospitals to derivation or validation, and prespecified clinical variables as candidate predictors. We used logistic regression to develop the score in a derivation cohort and examined its performance in predicting emergency department and in-hospital mortality in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Of 8761 eligible patients, 618 (7.0%) died. The CCEDRRN COVID-19 Mortality Score included age, sex, type of residence, arrival mode, chest pain, severe liver disease, respiratory rate and level of respiratory support. The area under the curve was 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93) in derivation and 0.92 (95% CI 0.90-0.93) in validation. The score had excellent calibration. These results suggest that scores of 6 or less would categorize patients as being at low risk for in-hospital death, with a negative predictive value of 99.9%. Patients in the low-risk group had an in-hospital mortality rate of 0.1%. Patients with a score of 15 or higher had an observed mortality rate of 81.0%. INTERPRETATION: The CCEDRRN COVID-19 Mortality Score is a simple score that can be used for level-of-care discussions with patients and in situations of critical care resource constraints to accurately predict death using variables available on emergency department arrival. The score was derived and validated mostly in unvaccinated patients, and before variants of concern were circulating widely and newer treatment regimens implemented in Canada. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT04702945.

Patterns of Volatility Across the Spike Protein Accurately Predict the Emergence of Mutations within SARS-CoV-2 Lineages (preprint)

New lineages of SARS-CoV-2 are constantly emerging. They contain mutations in the spike glycoprotein that can affect virus infectivity, transmissibility, or sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies. Here we show that the emergence of new spike variants is accurately predicted by patterns of amino acid variability (volatility) in small virus clusters that phylogenetically-precede or chronologically-predate such events. For each spike position, volatility within the virus clusters, volatility at adjacent positions on the three-dimensional structure of the protein, and volatility across the network of co-volatile sites describe its likelihood for mutations. By combining these variables, early-pandemic sequences accurately forecasted mutations in lineages that appeared 6-13 months later. The patterns of mutations in variants Alpha and Delta, as well as the recently-appearing variant Omicron were also predicted remarkably well. Importantly, probabilities assigned to spike positions for within-lineage mutations were lineage-specific, and accurately forecasted the observed changes. Sufficient antecedent warning of the imminent changes in SARS-CoV-2 lineages will allow design of immunogens that address their specific antigenic properties.

Co-design of a digital dietary intervention for adults at risk of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Co-design has the potential to create interventions that lead to sustainable health behaviour change. Evidence suggests application of co-design in various health domains has been growing; however, few public-facing digital interventions have been co-designed to specifically address the needs of adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aims to: (1) co-design, with key stakeholders, a digital dietary intervention to promote health behaviour change among adults at risk of T2D, and (2) evaluate the co-design process involved in developing the intervention prototype. METHODS: The co-design study was based on a partnership between nutrition researchers and designers experienced in co-design for health. Potential end-users (patients and health professionals) were recruited from an earlier stage of the study. Three online workshops were conducted to develop and review prototypes of an app for people at risk of T2D. Themes were inductively defined and aligned with persuasive design (PD) principles used to inform ideal app features and characteristics. RESULTS: Participants were predominantly female (range 58-100%), aged 38 to 63 years (median age = 59 years), consisting of a total of 20 end-users and four experts. Participants expressed the need for information from credible sources and to provide effective strategies to overcome social and environmental influences on eating behaviours. Preferred app features included tailoring to the individual's unique characteristics, ability to track and monitor dietary behaviour, and tools to facilitate controlled social connectivity. Relevant persuasive design principles included social support, reduction (reducing effort needed to reach target behaviour), tunnelling (guiding users through a process that leads to target behaviour), praise, rewards, and self-monitoring. The most preferred prototype was the Choices concept, which focusses on the users' journey of health behaviour change and recognises progress, successes, and failures in a supportive and encouraging manner. The workshops were rated successful, and feedback was positive. CONCLUSIONS: The study's co-design methods were successful in developing a functionally appealing and relevant digital health promotion intervention. Continuous engagement with stakeholders such as designers and end-users is needed to further develop a working prototype for testing.

Adapting Physical Therapy Management of Patients With COVID-19 in the Acute Care Setting: A Clinical Perspective

Purpose: Using emerging evidence and information pertaining to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a team of physical therapists (PTs) and occupational therapists (OTs) at the Duke University Hospital (DUH) created a screening algorithm to guide PT/OT evaluation readiness and treatment decisions. This article aims to discuss factors that were considered in the initial development of therapy guidelines and, in so doing, emphasizes the need for ongoing analysis of such screening algorithms and treatment guidelines as evidence continues to emerge. Summary of Key Points: The interdisciplinary team, leveraging their collective experience combined with the updated literature, changed the initial medical management for patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As a result, the screening algorithm was adapted to reflect evolving evidence-based practices. This facilitated earlier and more skillful PT intervention as well as continued PT involvement in the treatment process throughout the course of the patients' stay in the hospital. Conclusions: To guide clinical decisions regarding medical stability of patients and appropriate timing for PT intervention, the therapists at DUH considered factors including defining and identifying stages of disease severity, assessment of laboratory values, and monitoring oxygen stability. Beyond medical complexity, mobility was limited by several additional isolation barriers which presented challenges for PTs, nursing staff, and the patient.

Mask Effectiveness for Preventing Secondary Cases of COVID-19, Johnson County, Iowa, USA.

In September of 2020, the Iowa Department of Public Health released guidance stating that persons exposed to someone with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) need not quarantine if the case-patient and the contact wore face masks at the time of exposure. This guidance differed from that issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To determine the best action, we matched exposure information from COVID-19 case investigations with reported test results and calculated the secondary attack rates (SARs) after masked and unmasked exposures. Mask use by both parties reduced the SAR by half, from 25.6% to 12.5%. Longer exposure duration significantly increased SARs. Masks significantly reduced virus transmission when worn by both the case-patient and the contact, but SARs for each group were higher than anticipated. This finding suggests that quarantine after COVID-19 exposure is beneficial even if parties wore masks.

A brave new world for retail logistics and SCM in the 2020s and beyond

This perspective paper considers the current state of retail and retail logistics and supply chain management to discuss what the future may hold for it through four important issues: changing consumer expectations, the impact of e-commerce, and the relationship with the natural environment all of which are influenced by the economic environment. These issues apply to retailing globally and have been exacerbated by events such as the global COVID-19 pandemic, and examples are provided from various retail markets to illustrate them. Retailers will need to think strategically how to adapt their business models to address these issues by recognising the needs of new consumer segments, focussing on niche service and products to avoid direct clashes with larger physical store and Internet retailers, embracing more fully opportunities in e-commerce, and ensuring their activities are sustainable economically, socially and ecologically.

Early Convalescent Plasma Therapy and Mortality Among US Veterans Hospitalized With Nonsevere COVID-19: An Observational Analysis Emulating a Target Trial.

BACKGROUND: Early convalescent plasma transfusion may reduce mortality in patients with nonsevere coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This study emulates a (hypothetical) target trial using observational data from a cohort of US veterans admitted to a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facility between 1 May and 17 November 2020 with nonsevere COVID-19. The intervention was convalescent plasma initiated within 2 days of eligibility. Thirty-day mortality was compared using cumulative incidence curves, risk differences, and hazard ratios estimated from pooled logistic models with inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding. RESULTS: Of 11 269 eligible person-trials contributed by 4755 patients, 402 trials were assigned to the convalescent plasma group. Forty and 671 deaths occurred within the plasma and nonplasma groups, respectively. The estimated 30-day mortality risk was 6.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0%-9.7%) in the plasma group and 6.2% (95% CI, 5.6%-7.0%) in the nonplasma group. The associated risk difference was 0.30% (95% CI, -2.30% to 3.60%) and the hazard ratio was 1.04 (95% CI, .64-1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Our target trial emulation estimated no meaningful differences in 30-day mortality between nonsevere COVID-19 patients treated and untreated with convalescent plasma. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04545047.

RAMPART: A phase III multi-arm multi-stage trial of adjuvant checkpoint inhibitors in patients with resected primary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) at high or intermediate risk of relapse.

BACKGROUND: 20-60% of patients with initially locally advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) develop metastatic disease despite optimal surgical excision. Adjuvant strategies have been tested in RCC including cytokines, radiotherapy, hormones and oral tyrosine-kinase inhibitors (TKIs), with limited success. The predominant global standard-of-care after nephrectomy remains active monitoring. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are effective in the treatment of metastatic RCC; RAMPART will investigate these agents in the adjuvant setting. METHODS/DESIGN: RAMPART is an international, UK-led trial investigating the addition of ICIs after nephrectomy in patients with resected locally advanced RCC. RAMPART is a multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform trial, upon which additional research questions may be addressed over time. The target population is patients with histologically proven resected locally advanced RCC (clear cell and non-clear cell histological subtypes), with no residual macroscopic disease, who are at high or intermediate risk of relapse (Leibovich score 3-11). Patients with fully resected synchronous ipsilateral adrenal metastases are included. Participants are randomly assigned (3,2:2) to Arm A - active monitoring (no placebo) for one year, Arm B - durvalumab (PD-L1 inhibitor) 4-weekly for one year; or Arm C - combination therapy with durvalumab 4-weekly for one year plus two doses of tremelimumab (CTLA-4 inhibitor) at day 1 of the first two 4-weekly cycles. The co-primary outcomes are disease-free-survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes include safety, metastasis-free survival, RCC specific survival, quality of life, and patient and clinician preferences. Tumour tissue, plasma and urine are collected for molecular analysis (TransRAMPART). TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN #: ISRCTN53348826, NCT #: NCT03288532, EUDRACT #: 2017-002329-39, CTA #: 20363/0380/001-0001, MREC #: 17/LO/1875, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03288532, RAMPART grant number: MC_UU_12023/25, TransRAMPART grant number: A28690 Cancer Research UK, RAMPART Protocol version 5.0.

Design of the National Adaptive Trial for PTSD-related Insomnia (NAP Study), VA Cooperative Study Program (CSP) #2016.

There are currently no validated pharmacotherapies for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)-related insomnia. The purpose of the National Adaptive Trial for PTSD-Related Insomnia (NAP Study) is to efficiently compare to placebo the effects of three insomnia medications with different mechanisms of action that are already prescribed widely to veterans diagnosed with PTSD within U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Centers. This study plans to enroll 1224 patients from 34 VA Medical Centers into a 12- week prospective, randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial comparing trazodone, eszopiclone, and gabapentin. The primary outcome measure is insomnia, assessed with the Insomnia Severity Index. A novel aspect of this study is its adaptive design. At the recruitment midpoint, an interim analysis will be conducted to inform a decision to close recruitment to any "futile" arms (i.e. arms where further recruitment is very unlikely to yield a significant result) while maintaining the overall study recruitment target. This step could result in the enrichment of the remaining study arms, enhancing statistical power for the remaining comparisons to placebo. This study will also explore clinical, actigraphic, and biochemical predictors of treatment response that may guide future biomarker development. Lastly, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study will allow the consenting process and follow-up visits to be conducted via video or phone contact if in-person meetings are not possible. Overall, this study aims to identify at least one effective pharmacotherapy for PTSD-related insomnia, and, perhaps, to generate definitive negative data to reduce the use of ineffective insomnia medications. NATIONAL CLINICAL TRIAL (NCT) IDENTIFIED NUMBER: NCT03668041.